MLB · 2026 postseason

Is Ohtani's slump real?

Shohei Ohtani's regular-season slump is normal for a star. His October is not: a drop bigger than 89% of All-Star postseasons since 2015, and mostly real. Stars his age usually bounce back, as he did in 2025.

Through October 15, 2026

Ohtani after a strikeout in Game 2 of the NLCS, October 12. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect.

He has not pitched since July 3. ESPN, MLB.com and the Associated Press report injuries to his left knee and right biceps. He spent two weeks on the injured list and came back on September 23. His last home run was on August 18. For Game 3 of the NLCS against Milwaukee, the Dodgers moved him down to sixth in the batting order.

His regular-season slump is normal for a star, bigger than 52% of All-Star seasons since 2015. His October is not: from his regular season to his postseason, the drop is bigger than 89% of All-Star postseasons, and most of it is real. After a regular-season drop like his, most stars his age come back the next season, as he did in 2025.

How rare is his drop?

Each dot is a hitter's All-Star season since 2015: Ohtani's this year and 444 others. Each sits at the change in OPS from his best stretch of 100 plate appearances to his worst one after it, so the further left, the bigger the drop.

444 All-Star seasons since 2015, and his

Ohtani's is the orange dot. From 1.252 in his best stretch, May 18 to June 13, he fell to .668 in his worst after it, August 14 to September 26: a drop of .584, bigger than 52% of the others. For a star, that is normal.

52% Bigger than 52% of the 444 All-Star seasons since 2015 in this view.

The regular-season slump alone would not stand out: most MVP seasons had a drop at least as big, and his is bigger than 18% of Statcast MVPs' and 33% of all-time MVPs'.

33% Bigger than 33% of the 185 MVP seasons since 1911 in this view.

Count his regular season and postseason together and his worst stretch runs from August 21 to October 12: a drop of .756, bigger than 88% of All-Star seasons.

88% Bigger than 88% of the 444 All-Star seasons since 2015 in this view.

October is the rare part. Against his own season, .889, Ohtani's postseason OPS is .515, over 28 plate appearances: a drop of .374, bigger than 89% of the 140 All-Star postseasons since 2015. In 42 of them the hitter did better in October than in his season: those sit right of zero.

89% Bigger than 89% of the 140 All-Star seasons since 2015 with a postseason, in this view.

Luck or real?

Each dot is a star going from one stretch to another, in 460 seasons since 2015: across, how much better or worse he hit the ball; up, how much better or worse it went for him. The panel beside it sets the same stretches against how hard he hit the ball alone, in miles an hour.

Hit it worse and the results fell.

.096 the typical slump, below the line

Hit it better and they rose. Slumps sit below the line and comebacks above it, because a worst stretch catches the bad bounces and a best one the good.

.096 the typical slump, below the line

Ohtani's slump is mostly real: his contact fell .190, more than in 87% of these slumps, and his results .277. That leaves him .087 below the line, no more bad luck than the typical slump's .096.

.087 below the line (the typical slump: .096)

After back-to-back MVPs

Ohtani came into 2026 off 3 straight MVPs, 2023 to 2025. Only Barry Bonds had won as many in a row: 4, from 2001 to 2004. In all, 14 hitters have won back-to-back MVPs, in 15 runs. Each row is a run: the ring is its last MVP season's OPS, the dot the year after's.

14 hitters have won back-to-back MVPs

Before this year, 12 had played a full season after their last MVP, and 11 of them had a lower OPS that year. Only Yogi Berra, in 1956, hit better.

11 of 12 had a lower OPS the year after their last MVP

Slumps came with them, even in MVP years. In 4 of those 12 seasons the hitter had a drop as big as Ohtani's this year, from his best 100 plate appearances that season to his worst after them. So did 14 of the 25 MVP seasons here that can be measured, his own 2023 among them.

4 of 12 had a slump as big as his inside that season

Ohtani's 2026 is the orange row: 1.014 to .889, a fall of .125, right at the median of the 11 who fell before him. Aaron Judge, also coming off back-to-back MVPs, fell .273, to .871 over 285 plate appearances. None of the 3 with 20 or more plate appearances that October fell as far below his season as Ohtani.

.125 his fall from 2025; the median of the 11 was .125

And the season after that? Of the 12, 4 were back to 90% or more of their MVP season's OPS and 8 were not. Whether a hitter comes back from a drop like his is the next question.

4 of 12 were back to 90% or more of their MVP OPS the season after that

Do hitters bounce back?

Each dot is a season, in any of the four groups, whose regular-season drop was within .050 of his, placed by the next season's OPS as a share of the peak season's.

208 seasons with a drop like his and a full season after

Of the 243 seasons with a regular-season drop within .050 of his, 208 were followed by a full season, and 148 of those (71%) came back to 90% or more of the peak season's OPS. The other 35 were followed by fewer than 300 plate appearances; they are listed with the numbers below and not counted.

71% came back to 90% or more of the peak season's OPS

He has been here before. A slump like this one opened his 2025 MVP season: from his best stretch of 2024, at 29, he had fallen .548 by April 2025, close to this year's .584. He finished 2025 at 1.014 and won the MVP.

97% of his 2024 OPS, in 2025

At 31 he is still in his prime, by this page's measure of 26 to 31. Of the 114 prime-age seasons with a drop like his and a full season after it, 81 came back to 90% or more of the peak season's OPS.

71% of the prime-age seasons came back

Mike Schmidt hit 1.080 the season after his 1980, Wade Boggs 1.049 after his 1986, Joe Morgan 1.020 after his 1975 and Kyle Tucker .993 after his 2023, each better than the season before.

71% of the prime-age seasons came back

Ohtani follows through on a base hit in the eighth inning of Game 3 of the NLCS, October 14. AP Photo/Ashley Landis.

What it means

October's sample is small. He is batting .182 over 28 plate appearances this postseason, fewer than the 100 each stretch on this page is measured over, so a few games either way will move every postseason number here.

What to watch is how hard he hits the ball: whether his exit velocity climbs back toward the 94.4 mph of his peak.

None of that promises next season. It is how a drop like his usually goes for a star his age, and how his own went last time.

Explore the numbers

Every view and every row behind the story: switch the group and the games counted, or read the tables.

How rare is his drop?

Bigger than 52% of the 444 All-Star seasons since 2015 in this view.

−1.000−.800−.600−.400−.200.000.200.400.600Ohtani, 2026−1.000−.800−.600−.400−.200.000.200.400.600Ohtani, 2026
Change in OPS from each hitter's best 100 plate appearances
All-Stars, Regular
RankPlayer, seasonPeak OPSTrough OPSChange
1Giancarlo Stanton, 20171.531Aug 4–Aug 27.470Aug 25, 2018–Sep 19, 2018−1.061
2Bryce Harper, 20151.575May 6–Jun 3.553Jul 7, 2016–Aug 14, 2016−1.022
3Aaron Judge, 20221.650Jul 16–Aug 12.692Aug 25, 2023–Sep 17, 2023−.958
4Brandon Crawford, 20181.317May 13–Jun 10.369Aug 11–Sep 16−.948
5Matt Olson, 20231.332Jul 20–Aug 13.387Jun 22, 2024–Jul 21, 2024−.945
6George Springer, 20171.318Jun 13–Jul 7.381Jun 13, 2018–Jul 8, 2018−.937
7Juan Soto, 20211.446Sep 2–Sep 23.526Aug 15, 2022–Sep 15, 2022−.920
8José Ramírez, 20171.416Aug 27–Sep 27.506Aug 18, 2018–Sep 11, 2018−.910
9Aaron Judge, 20241.626May 15–Jun 8.737Jul 13, 2025–Aug 23, 2025−.889
10Ryan Zimmerman, 20171.424Apr 8–May 6.544Jun 17–Jul 21−.880
11Steven Kwan, 20241.274Apr 30–Jun 24.394Aug 13–Sep 7−.880
12Cody Bellinger, 20191.427Mar 30–Apr 25.549Jul 24, 2020–Aug 18, 2020−.878
13Shohei Ohtani, 20231.531Jun 9–Jul 2.671May 18, 2024–Jun 14, 2024−.860
14Julio Rodríguez, 20231.333Aug 4–Aug 28.483Jun 6, 2024–Jul 3, 2024−.850
15Albert Pujols, 20151.328May 28–Jun 22.483Aug 27–Sep 21−.845
16Cal Raleigh, 20251.245May 29–Jun 24.404Apr 28, 2026–Jun 29, 2026−.841
17Josh Donaldson, 20161.404Jun 13–Jul 5.567Jun 17, 2017–Jul 17, 2017−.837
18Dillon Dingler, 20261.129May 24–Jun 21.295Aug 9–Sep 7−.834
19Kyle Stowers, 20251.380Jun 25–Jul 26.551Apr 20, 2026–May 17, 2026−.829
20Josh Bell, 20191.333May 4–May 27.507Jul 24, 2020–Aug 26, 2020−.826
211Shohei Ohtani, 20261.252May 18–Jun 13.668Aug 14–Sep 26−.584

Luck or real?

The 20 slumps nearest his: how far each fell below the line.

Luck or real?
Player, seasonContactResultsBelow the lineExit velocityFrom his dot
Shohei Ohtani, 2026−.190−.277−.087−3.2
Cedric Mullins, 2021−.192−.276−.084−6.72.2
James Wood, 2025−.187−.275−.088−2.53.6
Paul Goldschmidt, 2017−.184−.280−.096−5.76.7
Alec Bohm, 2024−.182−.276−.094−3.68.1
J.D. Martinez, 2015−.201−.280−.079−4.511.4
Miguel Cabrera, 2016−.179−.273−.094−7.411.7
Alejandro Kirk, 2022−.202−.277−.075−5.012.0
J.D. Martinez, 2022−.182−.287−.105−5.512.8
Kyle Tucker, 2025−.177−.279−.102−4.413.2
Francisco Lindor, 2017−.186−.264−.078−1.313.6
Brent Rooker, 2023−.201−.266−.065−1.815.6
Freddie Freeman, 2023−.174−.278−.104−2.216.0
Josh Donaldson, 2016−.183−.292−.109−4.816.6
Ian Desmond, 2016−.189−.260−.071−3.417.0
Yasmani Grandal, 2015−.192−.294−.102−1.717.1
Todd Frazier, 2015−.172−.275−.103−3.618.1
Nick Castellanos, 2021−.176−.289−.113−7.718.4
Randy Arozarena, 2023−.180−.293−.113−5.218.9
Jason Kipnis, 2015−.171−.271−.100−3.919.9
CJ Abrams, 2024−.178−.294−.116−4.520.8

Do hitters bounce back?

Didn't play a full season: José Canseco, 1988; Corey Seager, 2017; Alex Bregman, 2019; Zack Cozart, 2017; Mickey Mantle, 1962; C.J. Cron, 2022; Wilson Ramos, 2016; Jed Lowrie, 2018; Christian Yelich, 2019; Ketel Marte, 2019; Carlos Santana, 2019; Fernando Tatis Jr., 2021; Ronald Acuña Jr., 2023; Anthony Rendon, 2019; Omar Narváez, 2021; Anthony Santander, 2024; Joey Gallo, 2019; Pedro Guerrero, 1985; Daniel Vogelbach, 2019; Travis d'Arnaud, 2022; Miguel Sanó, 2017; George Sisler, 1922; Dick Allen, 1972; Home Run Baker, 1914; George Springer, 2019; Lenny Dykstra, 1990; Michael Brantley, 2019; Nolan Arenado, 2019; Paul DeJong, 2019; Max Muncy, 2019; Will Smith, 2025; Willson Contreras, 2019; Michael Saunders, 2016; Pete Alonso, 2019; Marcus Semien, 2019

Do hitters bounce back?
Player, seasonChangePeak season's OPSNext season's OPSShareCame back
Matt Chapman, 2018−.584.864.84898%Yes
Manny Machado, 2015−.585.861.876101%Yes
Nelson Cruz, 2018−.583.8501.031121%Yes
Jake Cronenworth, 2022−.583.722.68995%Yes
Will Smith, 2023−.583.797.76095%Yes
José Canseco, 1988−.583.959Didn't play a full season
Mike Yastrzemski, 2020−.583.968.76879%No
Dansby Swanson, 2020−.585.809.76093%Yes
Adam Duvall, 2016−.582.795.78298%Yes
Corey Seager, 2017−.582.854Didn't play a full season
Heinie Zimmerman, 1912−.582.981.86888%No
Eddie Mathews, 1953−.5821.0331.02599%Yes
Richie Ashburn, 1958−.586.881.66775%No
Al Kaline, 1955−.587.967.91394%Yes
Nolan Arenado, 2017−.588.959.93597%Yes
Jackson Merrill, 2024−.580.826.77493%Yes
Manny Machado, 2025−.580.795.71189%No
Eddie Collins Sr., 1914−.580.906.89799%Yes
John Olerud, 1998−.580.998.89089%No
Barry Bonds, 2003−.5891.2781.422111%Yes

Method and sources

The measure. OPS over stretches of 100 plate appearances, from game logs: a stretch is the run of consecutive games whose plate appearances first reach 100. A hitter's peak is his best stretch in a regular season. His trough is his worst stretch that starts after the peak ends, so the two never overlap, and a stretch never runs from one season into the next. Every drop in the Regular and Both views is in OPS points, peak minus trough, never a percentage; the how-rare charts and tables show it as a change, trough minus peak, so a drop sits below zero.

Three views. Regular takes the worst stretch after the peak, later that season or in the next one. Postseason takes his OPS over that season's whole postseason, at least 20 plate appearances, against his OPS over that regular season, so a hitter who did better in October sits right of zero; seasons without one are left out, and before 1969 the postseason is the World Series alone. Both counts regular-season and postseason games together, in date order. A season with fewer than 100 plate appearances after its peak, through the end of the next season, has no Regular or Both drop.

Four groups, one dot a season: every hitter's All-Star season from 2015 to 2026; the MVP seasons since 2015; every MVP season by a hitter since 1911, the early Chalmers and League Awards counted as MVPs; and American and National League hitter seasons of 7.0 or more bWAR by players who never won an MVP, all time, with the cutoff scaled to the games his team played in 1918, 1919, 1981, 1994, 1995 and 2020. A hitter is any player whose main position is not pitcher. Ohtani counts as one, and only his hitting is measured.

The rank compares his 2026 drop with the group's other seasons in the same view. His own is not counted, and a tie does not count as smaller.

Luck or real uses Statcast, so 2015 onward, in the Both view: wOBA, expected wOBA (xwOBA) and average exit velocity over the same plate appearances as each stretch. wOBA weighs each way of reaching base by what it is worth in runs; xwOBA is what it would be from how hard and at what angle the ball was hit, with the walks and strikeouts as they were. Each season in the four groups gives a dot from its peak to its trough and, where 100 plate appearances follow, a second from that trough to its best stretch after it, through the end of the next season. The groups are pooled, each season once, and his own 2026 slump is left out of them; a stretch with a game Baseball Savant has no record of is left out too. A slump's distance below the line is how much further its wOBA fell than its expected wOBA, and the typical slump is the median of them. The table lists Ohtani and the 20 slumps nearest his dot.

Mostly real. In his trough, August 21 to October 12 with the postseason counted, Ohtani's expected wOBA was .301, down from .491 at his peak, and his exit velocity 91.2 mph, down from 94.4. He hit .241, lower still: that gap is the bad luck.

After back-to-back MVPs takes every hitter who won the MVP in two or more straight seasons, the early awards counted, and sets the year after his last MVP against that MVP season. Its slump is measured inside that season alone, from the best stretch to the worst after it, so the trough never runs into the next season. A year after under 300 plate appearances is drawn and not counted (Barry Bonds's 2005, 52 plate appearances), and Ohtani's and Judge's 2026 are set against the others, not counted among them. Coming back means 90% or more of the MVP season's OPS in the season after that.

Bounce-back takes every season, in all four groups and each once, whose Regular drop is within .050 of his, and sets the next season's OPS against the peak season's. A next season under 300 plate appearances is not counted either way. Coming back means 90% or more.

Ages and examples. A player's age is his age on the last day of June of the season, and his prime is 26 to 31 in the peak season, both ends counted. The named examples are the 4 prime-age seasons from 1975 on that came back with the highest next-season OPS, each player once and Ohtani left out. His own earlier drop is, among his seasons before last with a full season after them, the Regular drop closest to this year's.

The MLB Stats API has no game log for 22 seasons in the groups, so they are left out; the earliest season drawn is 1901.

Sources. Game logs, All-Star rosters and MVPs from the MLB Stats API; bWAR and the early awards from Baseball-Reference; wOBA, xwOBA and exit velocity from Baseball Savant. A script fetched them and the page draws from that copy; it never calls them. The injuries and the batting order are from the reports listed below.

The photographs, and each player's portrait with its credit: